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Topic: Odds on the roller (Read 5400 times) |
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Omniscient
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #60 on: 02/07/04 at 04:51:21 » |
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Another thing to note about all this randomness is the fact that for computers, it is very difficult for them to actually generate truly random numbers.
Taken from http://www.random.org/essay.html:
Randomness and random numbers have traditionally been used for a variety of purposes, for example games such as dice games. With the advent of computers, people recognized the need for a means of introducing randomness into a computer program. Surprising as it may seem, however, it is difficult to get a computer to do something by chance. A computer running a program follows its instructions blindly and is therefore completely predictable.
Computer engineers chose to introduce randomness into computers in the form of pseudo-random number generators. As the name suggests, pseudo-random numbers are not truly random. Rather, they are computed from a mathematical formula or simply taken from a precalculated list. A lot of research has gone into pseudo-random number theory and modern algorithms for generating them are so good that the numbers look exactly like they were really random. Pseudo-random numbers have the characteristic that they are predictable, meaning they can be predicted if you know where in the sequence the first number is taken from. For some purposes, predictability is a good characteristic, for others it is not.
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Shadow_of_Darkness
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BOO
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #61 on: 02/07/04 at 04:52:31 » |
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Ok, Lets look at the dice. Probability of rolling any number is 1/6. 6 possible outcomes per roll, so lets do 3 rolls-- 6^3=216 possible outcomes. Now, let's stick with the two- Probability that you have at least 1 two.
Ok, I drew out rolling a dice 3 dimes, if the first number rolled is a 1. So, if the first number rolled is a one, there are 25 outcomes where there is no 2. From that, you can rationalize that it would be the same for 3, 4, 5, and 6, and obviously if the first roll is a 2, theres no outcomes. Then, for 1, probability of at least one 2 is 11; for 2 theres 36, then 11 for 3, 4, 5, 6.
So, if you roll a dice 3 times, theres 216 possible outcomes. Probability speaking, 125 of the outcomes are no 2, and 91 of the outcomes have at least one 2. Yes, that does add up to 216. So, you roll the dice 3 times. Probability of gettin no 2 is 125/216 or .5787; about 58%. Probability of rolling at least one 2 is 91/216 or .4213; about 42%.
What i was saying earlier was to prove that with each individual roll, the probability is the same because they are independant. But, if you look at it as "Well, i'll roll 1,000 times."; then each you would look at it as rolling at least one 6-stat over 4000 rolls. The probability of rolling at least one 6 stat in 4000 rolls is slightly more than probability of rolling a 6-stat in general.
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Scar_Tissue_Chairman, Shadow_of_Darkness, Sneaky, Vegeto in game 
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Id
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I love YaBB 1G - SP1!
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #62 on: 02/08/04 at 23:10:32 » |
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totally agree. Comp's random numbers were never random. They are either 'pre-set' or time base...but you'll just have to learn and live with it. 
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I told you we were facing the wrong way!
Don't underestimate the power of a dark clown.
-Trippin' the Rift-
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Xcelon
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You think I'm wierd? Go take a look in the mirror!
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #63 on: 02/13/04 at 21:43:48 » |
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wtf is everybody talking about 
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~Xcelon~Ajimoo~Slovak~Remake~Atlanta~ In Game.
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