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Topic: Odds on the roller (Read 5398 times) |
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Fusion
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Odds on the roller
« on: 09/14/03 at 00:27:12 » |
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What are the odds of getting a 6 stat Like 4mil?
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JLH
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #1 on: 09/14/03 at 00:28:36 » |
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1 in 12^6 = 2,985,984
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Fusion
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #2 on: 09/14/03 at 00:30:35 » |
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Thank you for replying you can delete this post if you want now.
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Bean
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #3 on: 09/14/03 at 01:56:12 » |
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what about 5, stats and 4 stats? 
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Lady_Maha
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #4 on: 09/14/03 at 02:03:55 » |
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He gave you the formula....lol.. replace the 6 with 5 or 4...
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Bean
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #5 on: 09/14/03 at 02:11:00 » |
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Oh pfft...
I honestly didnt see that lmao..
I need to wake up.
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JLH
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #6 on: 09/14/03 at 02:35:55 » |
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Hmm, interested myself actually, so let's see if i can work it out. The roller works by having base stats (set by race), then a random number from 1 to 12 added on.
This is based on the binomial distribution, with the probability of getting a max stat being 1/12, and therefore the probability of a stat not being max is 11/12.
To get a 1-stat crit, whereby 1 of the 6 stats is 12 and the rest are not 12. We have (1/12) * (11/12)^5, but we have 6 stats, so we multiply this number by 6 to get .32, which is about 1 in 3.
To get a 2-stat crit, whereby 2 of the 6 stats are 12 and the rest are not 12. We have (1/12)^2 * (11/12)^4, but we have 6 stats and it could be any 2 of them that are max which means we have to work out all ways of getting 2 of the stats max out the 6 available (ie, str-int, str-dex, str-con etc). Or using nCr or the formula n!/r!(n-r)! we get 6!/2!4! which is 6*5/2 = 15 combinations. So 15*(1/12)^2*(11/12)^4 = .0735, which is about 1 in 14.
To get a 3-stat crit, (6!/3!3!)*(1/12)^3*(11/12)^3 = about 1 in 112.
4-stat crit, (6!/4!2!)*(1/12)^4*(11/12)^2 = about 1 in 1645.
5-stat crit, (6!/5!1!)*(1/12)^5*(11/12)^1 = about 1 in 45,242.
6-stat crit, (6!/6!0!)*(1/12)^6*(11/12)^0 = 1*(1/12)^6*1 = 1 in 2,985,984.
For interest, a 0-stat crit is (6!/0!6!)*(1/12)^0*(11/12)^6 = 1*1*(11/12)^6 = 0.59, which is about 1 in 1.7.
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Lady_Maha
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #7 on: 09/14/03 at 02:56:15 » |
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I can't believe you actually sat down and worked out the complete formulas....lol
Are you bored? 
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If you want to become whole, first let yourself become broken. (Lao Tse in the Tao Te Ching)
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Bean
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #8 on: 09/14/03 at 03:04:34 » |
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that took him like 5 minutes 
THATS AMAZING! Bloody amazing...
JLH teach me math pweeese!
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Pandilex
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #9 on: 09/14/03 at 03:40:11 » |
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I think you should use poisson distrubution since people get bored of rolling...
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Bean
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #10 on: 09/14/03 at 05:57:45 » |
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Use whaaaA?
I really look stupid now... Yeesh...
Meh, its alright, Im only in math 20 pure...
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Jurian
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #11 on: 09/14/03 at 09:29:11 » |
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hmm lol is there a big diff between dutch schools and other schools or something cuz what jlh just wrote there is just basic math at our schools lol 
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I only want my mind to be clear.
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Mephistroth
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #12 on: 09/14/03 at 09:37:18 » |
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Bean isn't from England.. I think anyway.
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Jurian
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #13 on: 09/14/03 at 10:02:08 » |
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on 09/14/03 at 09:37:18, Mephistroth wrote:| Bean isn't from England.. I think anyway. |
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me neither so what's your point exactly?
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I dream about how it's going to end,
Approaching me quickly.
Leaving a life of fear,
I only want my mind to be clear.
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Bill
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #14 on: 09/14/03 at 10:10:12 » |
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6-stat crit, (6!/6!0!)*(1/12)^6*(11/12)^0 = 1*(1/12)^6*1 = 1 in 2,985,984.
So if an average roll is about a second or so, (without the d**n questions) it would take on average...
2,985,984/60 = 49766.4 Minutes
49766.4/60 = 829.44 Hours
829.44/24 = 34.56 Days.
So on average, a 6 stat crit would take over a month of non-stop rolling! d**n that's put me right off...
My calculations might not be correct... 
Edit: A 5 stat would only take around half a day on average. 
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Momba
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #15 on: 09/14/03 at 12:45:12 » |
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All that math is meaningless in regards to the roller. It comes down to just plain luck. A few months ago I was spitting out 5 stat halfling like a boot camp spitting out privates.
For the last month or so the best I have had is a 20 15 18 21 18 17. Now that`s not a bad roll, but far from what I had gotten in the past. And as sad as it may seem to some I don`t roll for a few minutes at a time. I roll for hours. And not every few days, I mean daily. I have atleast 35-40 hours a week in the roller alone.
I honestly, truely, deep down in my soul believe that the update that made it where you have to click instead of hit the enter button had something to do with it. I have been told time and time again by Pandilex that the Roller odds have never been altered and I wanna believe him. But I have been rolling for far to long to think that him or JLH haven`t "tweaked" it a time or two. Or maybe that`s just my lame attempt to make myself feel better since my luck obviously sucks.
* Momba puts his bunny foot necklace on, throws salt over his shoulder, hooks his lucky mouse up and begins to roll.
Sometimes ya just gotta play the hand your dealt /who Ugly_Stats
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| « Last Edit: 09/20/03 at 10:03:40 by Momba » |
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Th ﾄ鉐t ﾕs
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Consumed
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #16 on: 09/17/03 at 03:54:19 » |
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ima reroll 2,985,984 times and see if i can get a 6stat lmao
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Rattlesnake
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #17 on: 09/17/03 at 04:02:50 » |
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are you going to actually count?
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Jurian
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #18 on: 09/17/03 at 17:07:39 » |
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on 09/17/03 at 04:02:50, Rattlesnake wrote:| are you going to actually count? |
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are you going to actually think he's going to do that?
but thing is with the roller that it might be the 10th roll you get a 6 stat or the 2 millionth (sp?) roll. the calculation just shows the chance for rolling a six stat not after how many rolls you get one.
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I dream about how it's going to end,
Approaching me quickly.
Leaving a life of fear,
I only want my mind to be clear.
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Momba
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Life isn't to be observed,it is to be experienced.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #19 on: 09/17/03 at 22:57:21 » |
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on 09/17/03 at 03:54:19, []D [] []V[] []D wrote:| ima reroll 2,985,984 times and see if i can get a 6stat lmao |
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http://download.com.com/3000-2110-10148675.html?tag=lst-0-2
Try this program from Cnet. It will keep track of the number of times you click your mouse.
It's free to try. Not worth buying but for your experiment it will do the trick.
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Th ﾄ鉐t ﾕs
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