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Topic: Odds on the roller (Read 5402 times) |
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alicia
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #20 on: 09/18/03 at 00:44:18 » |
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on 09/14/03 at 02:35:55, JLH wrote:
This is based on the binomial distribution, with the probability of getting a max stat being 1/12, and therefore the probability of a stat not being max is 11/12.
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I did further math a ***long*** time ago and can remember very little now... but with a binomial distribution is the chances the same of, say a dwarf getting 21 con and 20?
If we went by pandi's suggestion of using a biased distribution... you would get a 1 stat every 15 or so goes....
Rip my math to shreds and correct it, but if that happened the chance of any individual stat been perf would be 15*6=90... and the chance of a 5 stat would be 90^6= 1 in 531441 million
Obviously it would depend on the variance... but in any case it would make any further 6-stats been VERY rare
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Sera
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #21 on: 09/18/03 at 00:48:57 » |
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I just wanna know what's the odds that not only will I get a 4 or 5 stat (I've given up on 6).... but will those 4 or 5 stats be in the CORRECT positions!! *lol*
I keep rolling 19 19 19 8 19 19 or 21 18 7 21 18 17 and 18 19 12 18 18 19...
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Medora
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #22 on: 09/18/03 at 12:13:15 » |
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One must remember, making up ratios here, that if its a 1 out of 10 percent chance that you will get something, its still a Chance. Unless it is 100% chance there is no promise. Again with my made up ratio, if it said I had a 1 out of 10 percent chance to roll a 2 stat crit, then I could roll 10 times and Not get it, or roll 10 times and get more than 1. It is after all, only a percent Chance. In any case, chances or not, I still hate the roller 
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Jurian
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #23 on: 09/18/03 at 12:13:22 » |
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depends on the code jlh uses.
for example if the base stat is 13 and it changes with 6 so the range is from 7 to 19. the chance for a stat beeing perfect is 1 out of 12.
there are 6 diff stats so the chance to get a max stat AND it is strength is 1/6 * 1/12 = 0.0138888889
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JLH
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #24 on: 09/18/03 at 17:48:34 » |
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the chance of any particular combination is 1 in 12^6
each stat is worked out seperately, they are all independent events, therefore the chance of getting a max str is 1 in 12, the chance of getting a max in dex is 1 in 12.
the chance of having str and dex as max is 1 in 144.
Quote:If we went by pandi's suggestion of using a biased distribution... you would get a 1 stat every 15 or so goes....
Rip my math to shreds and correct it, but if that happened the chance of any individual stat been perf would be 15*6=90... and the chance of a 5 stat would be 90^6= 1 in 531441 million |
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consider it ripped nicely
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deSade
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #25 on: 09/18/03 at 19:18:51 » |
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And just to cheer you up if a 6 stat is 1 in 2,985,984
that doesn't mean that your next roll has a 1 in 2,985,983 chance, its still 1 in 2,985,984 
Hugh
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Bill
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #26 on: 09/18/03 at 20:24:58 » |
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Well done. 
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Oz
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #27 on: 09/20/03 at 06:40:29 » |
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OK If there are truly odds on the roller then someone explain the to me why there are always at least 5 or more of the same being rolled out at just arround the same times.
A few weeks ago it was 6/6 dwarfs and 4/6 Elf's now this week I've seen 4 or 5 newly rolled 1 off 6 stat h-lings with the same exact stats. Wtf is up with that? And dont tell me it's luck, with the way it's been going it surley is anything but that.
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Oz untill all my crap is sold...them i'm blowing this popsicle stand.
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Outsider
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #28 on: 09/20/03 at 08:54:04 » |
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on 09/20/03 at 06:40:29, Oz wrote: OK If there are truly odds on the roller then someone explain the to me why there are always at least 5 or more of the same being rolled out at just arround the same times.
A few weeks ago it was 6/6 dwarfs and 4/6 Elf's now this week I've seen 4 or 5 newly rolled 1 off 6 stat h-lings with the same exact stats. Wtf is up with that? And dont tell me it's luck, with the way it's been going it surley is anything but that. |
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It's a conspiracy,......offcourse its luck.
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Issy
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #29 on: 09/20/03 at 22:27:12 » |
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 wow. I understood that formula. It alllll makes sense now! THE MEANING OF LIFE IS IN THAT FORMULA!
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Joppa
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #30 on: 09/21/03 at 02:38:17 » |
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remember back when everyone owned humans with 19 18 18 18 19 15 or 19 18 18 18 19 16? now that was a conspiracy
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Melfice
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #31 on: 09/21/03 at 23:45:27 » |
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on 09/20/03 at 22:27:12, Issy wrote:| wow. I understood that formula. It alllll makes sense now! THE MEANING OF LIFE IS IN THAT FORMULA! |
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Actually the meaning of life is 42.
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Consumed
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #32 on: 09/22/03 at 01:44:35 » |
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i got to 683 and my pc got d/c so i quit 
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Sera
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #33 on: 09/22/03 at 02:47:06 » |
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lol I rolled 4000 times... not one crit worth even keeping....
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Fusion
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #34 on: 09/22/03 at 02:59:29 » |
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You must have a lot of time on ur hands. Doesn't Rolling 4000 times kinda whisper to you "get a life" hehe just playin Sera your awesome!
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ice_cold
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #35 on: 09/22/03 at 05:58:33 » |
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my odds for a 5 stat were 234,432...
just rolled 18 21 19 9 20 21
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| « Last Edit: 09/22/03 at 06:19:31 by ice_cold » |
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Eiements
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #36 on: 09/22/03 at 06:20:33 » |
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yea i remeber when there were like set stats like you couldnt get a better combo then like 19 18 18 18 19 15 or 19 10 19 19 17 10. What was up with that id just like to clear that up i keept on being told that you could get better but then why did everyone have them crits? I mean what are the odds that 40-50 people all had crits with the same stats... so i know they were set but why and then why was it changed so you could get any combo of stats?
plz reply ive been wanting to know this forever..
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JLH
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #37 on: 09/22/03 at 18:13:49 » |
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there isn't and has never been any set stat combos or anything, all stats are generated independently.
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Eiements
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #38 on: 09/23/03 at 06:11:01 » |
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so what was the reason that everyone was getting 19 10 19 19 17 10 and 19 18 18 18 19 15 just luck? i dont know doesnt seem like it and im sure alot of other players feel that way me myself i have 2: 19 10 19 19 17 10 crits and at one time had 3
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Dank
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #39 on: 09/23/03 at 07:20:57 » |
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Lmfao! Weird, my first Dank was 19 10 19 19 17 10
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