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Topic: Odds on the roller (Read 5401 times) |
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #40 on: 09/23/03 at 09:47:11 » |
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lol sykothyf has like exact same stats lol
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Shadow_of_Darkness
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #42 on: 02/04/04 at 22:38:11 » |
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LoL I go to school in New Jersey and I understood all of it.
I've been outta school for 3 days, and im doing Binomial Distribution in AP Statistic--> I used this to review and see if i remembered it, LoL
Faster way to do the first part of the Binomial Distribution Formula
(n)
(k)
instead of 6!/3!3! do (6*5*4)/(3*2*1)--
take n! out to k places, then divide by k!. Heh, little shortcut my teacher gave us. Or just use the calculator 
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Everlast
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #43 on: 02/04/04 at 22:57:49 » |
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Well..wonder how many times re-roll has been hit by people rolling for nightimist..or just our acct. individually...i know neither ryan or i roll anything at all...
So the odds of getting the exact same stats as another crit are also the same as your odds of getting a certain set of stats or 6 stat crit right?
anyone else have 18 15 21 18 18 12
stats of lancaster and syntax, we're twinbos 
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Silverwizard
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #44 on: 02/05/04 at 00:31:52 » |
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It is easy no matter what the probability is it is a reset chance so then it does not matter what the probability is because in the and as was said it is all luck. The people with these stats are just lucky nothing else.
42 is the answer to life the universe and everything not the meaning of life.
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Shadow_of_Darkness
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #45 on: 02/05/04 at 02:17:55 » |
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Not exactly. If im right, I believe individual stats are independant. That is, what you get for say strength does not affect what you get for wisdom. If that is the case, the Law of Large Numbers applies. The Law of Large numbers basically says that on an event such as a slot machine, individual outcomes are totally random and unpredictable. But, when repeated many, many times, you can predict exactly what will happen.
Think of a coin- P(heads)=.5, and P(tails)=.5 . Therefore, if you flip a coin 10 times, you should get 5 heads, 5 tails. I have a probability simulater on my calculator, and i got 8 heads, 2 tails. I'll hit the 50 toss button once...There- Tails- 30 Heads-30. An individual attempt is impossible to predict, but in the long run, you know exactly what the probability will be. How do casino's make money? The law of large numbers- They know exactly how many times each slot machine will hit (off by very few) and therefore know exactly how much money they will make. Lesson: If you are at a casino and see someone playing a slot machine for three hours, not win anything, and leave, jump for that machine!
So, in fact, luck is not involved at all, its random chance. And you cannot base it on how many time you've hit 're-roll' since you have played, because, theoretically, once a 6-stat is rolled, it shouldnt be rolled again for quite some time. Its like, you win $500 from the slot machine, the chance of the next play giving you a payback is very little. I could go on and on explaining how the theory works and relates to this, but, I've got other stuff to do.
I'll try to figure out a numerical way to express this. There's your statistics lesson for the day.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #46 on: 02/05/04 at 04:23:06 » |
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You just bumped that from like the very last page, lol.
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Raylen
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #47 on: 02/05/04 at 10:58:52 » |
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on 02/05/04 at 02:17:55, Shadow_of_Darkness wrote:| theoretically, once a 6-stat is rolled, it shouldnt be rolled again for quite some time. Its like, you win $500 from the slot machine, the chance of the next play giving you a payback is very little. |
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Lol....no....its not really like that....a slot machine is programmed to work like that, whereas i suspect the roller is not. Whatever the result of the roll you've just made - it has no bearing on the next roll whatsoever. So yeah, its just luck, lol 
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Shadow_of_Darkness
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #48 on: 02/05/04 at 17:17:18 » |
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on 02/05/04 at 10:58:52, Raylen wrote:
Lol....no....its not really like that....a slot machine is programmed to work like that, whereas i suspect the roller is not. Whatever the result of the roll you've just made - it has no bearing on the next roll whatsoever. So yeah, its just luck, lol |
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Not really. Each roll not affecting the next would be independance. And if the probability was one in like 2.9 mil, theoretically you shouldnt have one for another 2.9 mil rolls if you just did. Sure, it could turn out that you roll a six stat, save it, on your first roll, you get another one, save it, and roll another and right away get a six stat. Now, whats the probability that the next roll will give you a six stat? Slim to none, and slim just walked out the door.
Your probability on each roll of rolling a 6-stat is 3.45*10^-7, or .000000345, or .0000345%--> And it is the same for each roll. Slot machines aren't programmed to roll every so often, its complete random chance. The roller must be the same way for it to be based on Binomial Distribution, because one of the requirements to binomial distribution is that the results are independant. Read a statistics book, and you'll realise its not luck.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #49 on: 02/05/04 at 17:50:44 » |
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on 02/05/04 at 02:17:55, Shadow_of_Darkness wrote:Not exactly. If im right, I believe individual stats are independant. That is, what you get for say strength does not affect what you get for wisdom. If that is the case, the Law of Large Numbers applies. The Law of Large numbers basically says that on an event such as a slot machine, individual outcomes are totally random and unpredictable. But, when repeated many, many times, you can predict exactly what will happen.
Think of a coin- P(heads)=.5, and P(tails)=.5 . Therefore, if you flip a coin 10 times, you should get 5 heads, 5 tails. I have a probability simulater on my calculator, and i got 8 heads, 2 tails. I'll hit the 50 toss button once...There- Tails- 30 Heads-30. An individual attempt is impossible to predict, but in the long run, you know exactly what the probability will be. How do casino's make money? The law of large numbers- They know exactly how many times each slot machine will hit (off by very few) and therefore know exactly how much money they will make. Lesson: If you are at a casino and see someone playing a slot machine for three hours, not win anything, and leave, jump for that machine!
So, in fact, luck is not involved at all, its random chance. And you cannot base it on how many time you've hit 're-roll' since you have played, because, theoretically, once a 6-stat is rolled, it shouldnt be rolled again for quite some time. Its like, you win $500 from the slot machine, the chance of the next play giving you a payback is very little. I could go on and on explaining how the theory works and relates to this, but, I've got other stuff to do.
I'll try to figure out a numerical way to express this. There's your statistics lesson for the day.
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I think that is correct. The odds are per each roll what you may get, therefore if one is rolled you're not any less likely to get it on the next roll...it just isnt probable for it to happen 2 times in a row....or at all really.
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Silverwizard
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #50 on: 02/05/04 at 19:36:55 » |
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Yes it is unlikly but if you flip that coin 50 times there is a chance that it will come up heads 50 times and tails 0 times. The chance is smaller than others and the law of large numbers is not a law but more a Highest Chance of large numbers. The slot machines are usually rigged but if ya get a non rigged one the casino could go broke because randomly the machine get 1/100000000 10 times in a row. Possible but unlikely, you can predict what is likely to happen but not certain. If you have a 6 sided die you should roll it about 24 times to get 4 of each about. That is the aporximate I think but in probibility nothing is certain only probable.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #51 on: 02/06/04 at 00:09:10 » |
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if you guys are so good at math, tell me what's the odd of someone run straight toward a wall and completely pass through it -- due to the certain arrangement of the nucleus/electrons in his/her body at that certain time compare to the arrangement of the wall at the exact same time.
...wonder if they teached this in class too...
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Silverwizard
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #52 on: 02/06/04 at 00:57:58 » |
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Due to how close the molecules are in a solid the chance is none. The person's molecules will never be out of the way because they are always close sorry dude. I am the product of the procreation of two math nerds sorry people.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #53 on: 02/06/04 at 02:47:08 » |
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last I check..atoms are smaller than molecules...go hit the science book again and see =)...and atoms are mostly composed of empty space...(thought that was teach to student when they're in the 9th grade or so hmm..)
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Shadow_of_Darkness
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #54 on: 02/06/04 at 03:19:57 » |
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on 02/06/04 at 00:09:10, CrazyNoob wrote:if you guys are so good at math, tell me what's the odd of someone run straight toward a wall and completely pass through it -- due to the certain arrangement of the nucleus/electrons in his/her body at that certain time compare to the arrangement of the wall at the exact same time.
...wonder if they teached this in class too... |
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They do. My chemistry teacher went off on a tangent and started talking about this. It's charges repelling each other, thats why you cant run through a wall. Though, theoretically, he did say that if you run fast enough, its possible you could break the repelling force and go through it. But generally speaking, the reason that you dont go through a wall if you walk into it or even sink into the street is repelling charges. Meaning that (I dont remember if its positive charges or negative, i think positive?) your body gives off a positive charge, and so would the wall/street, preventing you from walking through it. Get two magnets, and put them up to each other, positive to positive or negative to negative, and you feel a repelling force. Probability/math isnt involved, its (atomic or molecular) charges.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #55 on: 02/06/04 at 15:44:19 » |
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man you guys have way to much time on your hands. all you need to understand is that getting a 6 stat is really hard. a 5 stats is hard but not quite as hard, 3 stat is a bit easier, 2 even more easier, and one stats happen all the time. if you want to know, the first fomula should have been enough, posting all the different kinds of formulas and ways to figure it out has no point because they all come out with the same answer if done correctly. Plus, your odds dont get better everytime you roll, they stay the same, so you have the same probablility of getting a 6 stat the first time you roll as the 10 billionth time you roll. you could roll as many times as you want and your chances will no improve. if you spent this much effort at school as you on this forum, you would probably be the number one math student at your school, try directing your efforts to somthing that really matters in life.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #56 on: 02/06/04 at 18:01:47 » |
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Ya they do. Flip a coin 10 times. Probability of at least 1 tails- 2^10= 1024, only one possible outcome with no tails is all heads, so 1023/1024=.999. So, even though the results are independant, you roll 10 billion times straight, each successive roll the probabilities get better. I dont know how to draw a diagram or anything for the ridiculous probabilities of the roller, but its the same general idea.
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JLH
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #57 on: 02/06/04 at 19:15:42 » |
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the concept of independence seems to be eluding some of you
let's ignore nightmist for a while and work with dice, where the chance to get a particular number is 1/6
once you have rolled the dice, say you get a 2, the probability of getting a 2 again is still 1/6, because once the event has taken place, it is irrelevant.
sure, you could say (before rolling), "the chance that i will get the number 2 twice is 1/36, which is correct", but once you have had one 2, the chance to get the 2nd is 1/6.
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Silverwizard
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #58 on: 02/06/04 at 20:00:08 » |
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Yeah JLH can acctually explain this. Every roll is independent and therefore the proability is only what can be expected not what will happen. There is a chance that a nuclear bomb will fall on my head right now launched by some random terrorist group but the probibility says I will prolly go on to just live and say annoying techno babble on the forums.
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Re: Odds on the roller
« Reply #59 on: 02/06/04 at 22:55:35 » |
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which is exactly what i was trying to say
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