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Title: Odds on the roller Post by Cyrax on 09/14/03 at 00:27:12 What are the odds of getting a 6 stat??? Like 4mil? |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by JLH on 09/14/03 at 00:28:36 1 in 12^6 = 2,985,984 |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Cyrax on 09/14/03 at 00:30:35 Thank you for replying you can delete this post if you want now. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Bean on 09/14/03 at 01:56:12 what about 5, stats and 4 stats? :) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Lady_Maha on 09/14/03 at 02:03:55 He gave you the formula....lol.. replace the 6 with 5 or 4... |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Bean on 09/14/03 at 02:11:00 Oh pfft... I honestly didnt see that lmao.. I need to wake up. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by JLH on 09/14/03 at 02:35:55 Hmm, interested myself actually, so let's see if i can work it out. The roller works by having base stats (set by race), then a random number from 1 to 12 added on. This is based on the binomial distribution, with the probability of getting a max stat being 1/12, and therefore the probability of a stat not being max is 11/12. To get a 1-stat crit, whereby 1 of the 6 stats is 12 and the rest are not 12. We have (1/12) * (11/12)^5, but we have 6 stats, so we multiply this number by 6 to get .32, which is about 1 in 3. To get a 2-stat crit, whereby 2 of the 6 stats are 12 and the rest are not 12. We have (1/12)^2 * (11/12)^4, but we have 6 stats and it could be any 2 of them that are max which means we have to work out all ways of getting 2 of the stats max out the 6 available (ie, str-int, str-dex, str-con etc). Or using nCr or the formula n!/r!(n-r)! we get 6!/2!4! which is 6*5/2 = 15 combinations. So 15*(1/12)^2*(11/12)^4 = .0735, which is about 1 in 14. To get a 3-stat crit, (6!/3!3!)*(1/12)^3*(11/12)^3 = about 1 in 112. 4-stat crit, (6!/4!2!)*(1/12)^4*(11/12)^2 = about 1 in 1645. 5-stat crit, (6!/5!1!)*(1/12)^5*(11/12)^1 = about 1 in 45,242. 6-stat crit, (6!/6!0!)*(1/12)^6*(11/12)^0 = 1*(1/12)^6*1 = 1 in 2,985,984. For interest, a 0-stat crit is (6!/0!6!)*(1/12)^0*(11/12)^6 = 1*1*(11/12)^6 = 0.59, which is about 1 in 1.7. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Lady_Maha on 09/14/03 at 02:56:15 I can't believe you actually sat down and worked out the complete formulas....lol Are you bored? ;) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Bean on 09/14/03 at 03:04:34 that took him like 5 minutes :o THATS AMAZING! Bloody amazing... JLH teach me math pweeese! |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Pandilex on 09/14/03 at 03:40:11 I think you should use poisson distrubution since people get bored of rolling... |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Bean on 09/14/03 at 05:57:45 Use whaaaA? I really look stupid now... Yeesh... Meh, its alright, Im only in math 20 pure... |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Jurian on 09/14/03 at 09:29:11 hmm lol is there a big diff between dutch schools and other schools or something cuz what jlh just wrote there is just basic math at our schools lol :D |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Mephistroth on 09/14/03 at 09:37:18 Bean isn't from England.. I think anyway. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Jurian on 09/14/03 at 10:02:08 on 09/14/03 at 09:37:18, Mephistroth wrote:
me neither so what's your point exactly? |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Bill on 09/14/03 at 10:10:12 6-stat crit, (6!/6!0!)*(1/12)^6*(11/12)^0 = 1*(1/12)^6*1 = 1 in 2,985,984. So if an average roll is about a second or so, (without the d**n questions) it would take on average... 2,985,984/60 = 49766.4 Minutes 49766.4/60 = 829.44 Hours 829.44/24 = 34.56 Days. So on average, a 6 stat crit would take over a month of non-stop rolling! d**n that's put me right off... My calculations might not be correct... :P Edit: A 5 stat would only take around half a day on average. ;D |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Roc on 09/14/03 at 12:45:12 All that math is meaningless in regards to the roller. It comes down to just plain luck. A few months ago I was spitting out 5 stat halfling like a boot camp spitting out privates. For the last month or so the best I have had is a 20 15 18 21 18 17. Now that`s not a bad roll, but far from what I had gotten in the past. And as sad as it may seem to some I don`t roll for a few minutes at a time. I roll for hours. And not every few days, I mean daily. I have atleast 35-40 hours a week in the roller alone. I honestly, truely, deep down in my soul believe that the update that made it where you have to click instead of hit the enter button had something to do with it. I have been told time and time again by Pandilex that the Roller odds have never been altered and I wanna believe him. But I have been rolling for far to long to think that him or JLH haven`t "tweaked" it a time or two. Or maybe that`s just my lame attempt to make myself feel better since my luck obviously sucks. * puts his bunny foot necklace on, throws salt over his shoulder, hooks his lucky mouse up and begins to roll. Sometimes ya just gotta play the hand your dealt /who Ugly_Stats |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by []D [] []V[] []D on 09/17/03 at 03:54:19 ima reroll 2,985,984 times and see if i can get a 6stat lmao |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Rattlesnake on 09/17/03 at 04:02:50 are you going to actually count? |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Jurian on 09/17/03 at 17:07:39 on 09/17/03 at 04:02:50, Rattlesnake wrote:
are you going to actually think he's going to do that? but thing is with the roller that it might be the 10th roll you get a 6 stat or the 2 millionth (sp?) roll. the calculation just shows the chance for rolling a six stat not after how many rolls you get one. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Roc on 09/17/03 at 22:57:21 on 09/17/03 at 03:54:19, []D [] []V[] []D wrote:
http://download.com.com/3000-2110-10148675.html?tag=lst-0-2 Try this program from Cnet. It will keep track of the number of times you click your mouse. It's free to try. Not worth buying but for your experiment it will do the trick. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Alicia on 09/18/03 at 00:44:18 on 09/14/03 at 02:35:55, JLH wrote:
I did further math a ***long*** time ago and can remember very little now... but with a binomial distribution is the chances the same of, say a dwarf getting 21 con and 20? If we went by pandi's suggestion of using a biased distribution... you would get a 1 stat every 15 or so goes.... Rip my math to shreds and correct it, but if that happened the chance of any individual stat been perf would be 15*6=90... and the chance of a 5 stat would be 90^6= 1 in 531441 million Obviously it would depend on the variance... but in any case it would make any further 6-stats been VERY rare |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Sera on 09/18/03 at 00:48:57 I just wanna know what's the odds that not only will I get a 4 or 5 stat (I've given up on 6).... but will those 4 or 5 stats be in the CORRECT positions!! *lol* I keep rolling 19 19 19 8 19 19 or 21 18 7 21 18 17 and 18 19 12 18 18 19... |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Medora on 09/18/03 at 12:13:15 One must remember, making up ratios here, that if its a 1 out of 10 percent chance that you will get something, its still a Chance. Unless it is 100% chance there is no promise. Again with my made up ratio, if it said I had a 1 out of 10 percent chance to roll a 2 stat crit, then I could roll 10 times and Not get it, or roll 10 times and get more than 1. It is after all, only a percent Chance. In any case, chances or not, I still hate the roller ;) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Jurian on 09/18/03 at 12:13:22 depends on the code jlh uses. for example if the base stat is 13 and it changes with 6 so the range is from 7 to 19. the chance for a stat beeing perfect is 1 out of 12. there are 6 diff stats so the chance to get a max stat AND it is strength is 1/6 * 1/12 = 0.0138888889 |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by JLH on 09/18/03 at 17:48:34 the chance of any particular combination is 1 in 12^6 each stat is worked out seperately, they are all independent events, therefore the chance of getting a max str is 1 in 12, the chance of getting a max in dex is 1 in 12. the chance of having str and dex as max is 1 in 144. Quote:
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by deSade on 09/18/03 at 19:18:51 And just to cheer you up if a 6 stat is 1 in 2,985,984 that doesn't mean that your next roll has a 1 in 2,985,983 chance, its still 1 in 2,985,984 ;D Hugh |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Bill on 09/18/03 at 20:24:58 Well done. ::) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Oz on 09/20/03 at 06:40:29 OK If there are truly odds on the roller then someone explain the to me why there are always at least 5 or more of the same being rolled out at just arround the same times. A few weeks ago it was 6/6 dwarfs and 4/6 Elf's now this week I've seen 4 or 5 newly rolled 1 off 6 stat h-lings with the same exact stats. Wtf is up with that? And dont tell me it's luck, with the way it's been going it surley is anything but that. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Outsider on 09/20/03 at 08:54:04 on 09/20/03 at 06:40:29, Oz wrote:
It's a conspiracy,......offcourse its luck. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Issy on 09/20/03 at 22:27:12 :o wow. I understood that formula. It alllll makes sense now! THE MEANING OF LIFE IS IN THAT FORMULA! |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by AbsoluT on 09/21/03 at 02:38:17 remember back when everyone owned humans with 19 18 18 18 19 15 or 19 18 18 18 19 16? now that was a conspiracy |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Melfice on 09/21/03 at 23:45:27 on 09/20/03 at 22:27:12, Issy wrote:
Actually the meaning of life is 42. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by []D [] []V[] []D on 09/22/03 at 01:44:35 i got to 683 and my pc got d/c so i quit :'( |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Sera on 09/22/03 at 02:47:06 lol I rolled 4000 times... not one crit worth even keeping.... |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Cyrax on 09/22/03 at 02:59:29 You must have a lot of time on ur hands. Doesn't Rolling 4000 times kinda whisper to you "get a life" hehe just playin Sera your awesome! |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Ice_Cold on 09/22/03 at 05:58:33 my odds for a 5 stat were 234,432... just rolled 18 21 19 9 20 21 |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Eiements on 09/22/03 at 06:20:33 yea i remeber when there were like set stats like you couldnt get a better combo then like 19 18 18 18 19 15 or 19 10 19 19 17 10. What was up with that id just like to clear that up i keept on being told that you could get better but then why did everyone have them crits? I mean what are the odds that 40-50 people all had crits with the same stats... so i know they were set but why and then why was it changed so you could get any combo of stats? plz reply ive been wanting to know this forever.. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by JLH on 09/22/03 at 18:13:49 there isn't and has never been any set stat combos or anything, all stats are generated independently. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Eiements on 09/23/03 at 06:11:01 so what was the reason that everyone was getting 19 10 19 19 17 10 and 19 18 18 18 19 15 just luck? i dont know doesnt seem like it and im sure alot of other players feel that way me myself i have 2: 19 10 19 19 17 10 crits and at one time had 3 |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Dank on 09/23/03 at 07:20:57 Lmfao! Weird, my first Dank was 19 10 19 19 17 10 ::) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Bacardi on 09/23/03 at 09:47:11 lol sykothyf has like exact same stats lol |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Tha Girl on 02/02/04 at 16:23:56 on 09/14/03 at 09:29:11, Jurian wrote:
hehe, nah basic math NO WAY! My math is good, but i dont understand anything of it. (or its cause my english isnt really good ;D ) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Shadow_of_Darkness on 02/04/04 at 22:38:11 LoL I go to school in New Jersey and I understood all of it. I've been outta school for 3 days, and im doing Binomial Distribution in AP Statistic--> I used this to review and see if i remembered it, LoL Faster way to do the first part of the Binomial Distribution Formula (n) (k) instead of 6!/3!3! do (6*5*4)/(3*2*1)-- take n! out to k places, then divide by k!. Heh, little shortcut my teacher gave us. Or just use the calculator :P |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Everlast on 02/04/04 at 22:57:49 Well..wonder how many times re-roll has been hit by people rolling for nightimist..or just our acct. individually...i know neither ryan or i roll anything at all... So the odds of getting the exact same stats as another crit are also the same as your odds of getting a certain set of stats or 6 stat crit right? anyone else have 18 15 21 18 18 12 stats of lancaster and syntax, we're twinbos :) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Silverwizard on 02/05/04 at 00:31:52 It is easy no matter what the probability is it is a reset chance so then it does not matter what the probability is because in the and as was said it is all luck. The people with these stats are just lucky nothing else. 42 is the answer to life the universe and everything not the meaning of life. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Shadow_of_Darkness on 02/05/04 at 02:17:55 Not exactly. If im right, I believe individual stats are independant. That is, what you get for say strength does not affect what you get for wisdom. If that is the case, the Law of Large Numbers applies. The Law of Large numbers basically says that on an event such as a slot machine, individual outcomes are totally random and unpredictable. But, when repeated many, many times, you can predict exactly what will happen. Think of a coin- P(heads)=.5, and P(tails)=.5 . Therefore, if you flip a coin 10 times, you should get 5 heads, 5 tails. I have a probability simulater on my calculator, and i got 8 heads, 2 tails. I'll hit the 50 toss button once...There- Tails- 30 Heads-30. An individual attempt is impossible to predict, but in the long run, you know exactly what the probability will be. How do casino's make money? The law of large numbers- They know exactly how many times each slot machine will hit (off by very few) and therefore know exactly how much money they will make. Lesson: If you are at a casino and see someone playing a slot machine for three hours, not win anything, and leave, jump for that machine! So, in fact, luck is not involved at all, its random chance. And you cannot base it on how many time you've hit 're-roll' since you have played, because, theoretically, once a 6-stat is rolled, it shouldnt be rolled again for quite some time. Its like, you win $500 from the slot machine, the chance of the next play giving you a payback is very little. I could go on and on explaining how the theory works and relates to this, but, I've got other stuff to do. I'll try to figure out a numerical way to express this. There's your statistics lesson for the day. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by ElDiAbLo on 02/05/04 at 04:23:06 You just bumped that from like the very last page, lol. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Raylen on 02/05/04 at 10:58:52 on 02/05/04 at 02:17:55, Shadow_of_Darkness wrote:
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Shadow_of_Darkness on 02/05/04 at 17:17:18 on 02/05/04 at 10:58:52, Raylen wrote:
Not really. Each roll not affecting the next would be independance. And if the probability was one in like 2.9 mil, theoretically you shouldnt have one for another 2.9 mil rolls if you just did. Sure, it could turn out that you roll a six stat, save it, on your first roll, you get another one, save it, and roll another and right away get a six stat. Now, whats the probability that the next roll will give you a six stat? Slim to none, and slim just walked out the door. Your probability on each roll of rolling a 6-stat is 3.45*10^-7, or .000000345, or .0000345%--> And it is the same for each roll. Slot machines aren't programmed to roll every so often, its complete random chance. The roller must be the same way for it to be based on Binomial Distribution, because one of the requirements to binomial distribution is that the results are independant. Read a statistics book, and you'll realise its not luck. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Everlast on 02/05/04 at 17:50:44 on 02/05/04 at 02:17:55, Shadow_of_Darkness wrote:
I think that is correct. The odds are per each roll what you may get, therefore if one is rolled you're not any less likely to get it on the next roll...it just isnt probable for it to happen 2 times in a row....or at all really. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Silverwizard on 02/05/04 at 19:36:55 Yes it is unlikly but if you flip that coin 50 times there is a chance that it will come up heads 50 times and tails 0 times. The chance is smaller than others and the law of large numbers is not a law but more a Highest Chance of large numbers. The slot machines are usually rigged but if ya get a non rigged one the casino could go broke because randomly the machine get 1/100000000 10 times in a row. Possible but unlikely, you can predict what is likely to happen but not certain. If you have a 6 sided die you should roll it about 24 times to get 4 of each about. That is the aporximate I think but in probibility nothing is certain only probable. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by CrazyNoob on 02/06/04 at 00:09:10 if you guys are so good at math, tell me what's the odd of someone run straight toward a wall and completely pass through it -- due to the certain arrangement of the nucleus/electrons in his/her body at that certain time compare to the arrangement of the wall at the exact same time. ...wonder if they teached this in class too... |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Silverwizard on 02/06/04 at 00:57:58 Due to how close the molecules are in a solid the chance is none. The person's molecules will never be out of the way because they are always close sorry dude. I am the product of the procreation of two math nerds sorry people. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by CrazyNoob on 02/06/04 at 02:47:08 last I check..atoms are smaller than molecules...go hit the science book again and see =)...and atoms are mostly composed of empty space...(thought that was teach to student when they're in the 9th grade or so hmm..) |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Shadow_of_Darkness on 02/06/04 at 03:19:57 on 02/06/04 at 00:09:10, CrazyNoob wrote:
They do. My chemistry teacher went off on a tangent and started talking about this. It's charges repelling each other, thats why you cant run through a wall. Though, theoretically, he did say that if you run fast enough, its possible you could break the repelling force and go through it. But generally speaking, the reason that you dont go through a wall if you walk into it or even sink into the street is repelling charges. Meaning that (I dont remember if its positive charges or negative, i think positive?) your body gives off a positive charge, and so would the wall/street, preventing you from walking through it. Get two magnets, and put them up to each other, positive to positive or negative to negative, and you feel a repelling force. Probability/math isnt involved, its (atomic or molecular) charges. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Dc on 02/06/04 at 15:44:19 man you guys have way to much time on your hands. all you need to understand is that getting a 6 stat is really hard. a 5 stats is hard but not quite as hard, 3 stat is a bit easier, 2 even more easier, and one stats happen all the time. if you want to know, the first fomula should have been enough, posting all the different kinds of formulas and ways to figure it out has no point because they all come out with the same answer if done correctly. Plus, your odds dont get better everytime you roll, they stay the same, so you have the same probablility of getting a 6 stat the first time you roll as the 10 billionth time you roll. you could roll as many times as you want and your chances will no improve. if you spent this much effort at school as you on this forum, you would probably be the number one math student at your school, try directing your efforts to somthing that really matters in life. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Shadow_of_Darkness on 02/06/04 at 18:01:47 Ya they do. Flip a coin 10 times. Probability of at least 1 tails- 2^10= 1024, only one possible outcome with no tails is all heads, so 1023/1024=.999. So, even though the results are independant, you roll 10 billion times straight, each successive roll the probabilities get better. I dont know how to draw a diagram or anything for the ridiculous probabilities of the roller, but its the same general idea. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by JLH on 02/06/04 at 19:15:42 the concept of independence seems to be eluding some of you let's ignore nightmist for a while and work with dice, where the chance to get a particular number is 1/6 once you have rolled the dice, say you get a 2, the probability of getting a 2 again is still 1/6, because once the event has taken place, it is irrelevant. sure, you could say (before rolling), "the chance that i will get the number 2 twice is 1/36, which is correct", but once you have had one 2, the chance to get the 2nd is 1/6. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Silverwizard on 02/06/04 at 20:00:08 Yeah JLH can acctually explain this. Every roll is independent and therefore the proability is only what can be expected not what will happen. There is a chance that a nuclear bomb will fall on my head right now launched by some random terrorist group but the probibility says I will prolly go on to just live and say annoying techno babble on the forums. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Dc on 02/06/04 at 22:55:35 which is exactly what i was trying to say |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Omniscient on 02/07/04 at 04:51:21 Another thing to note about all this randomness is the fact that for computers, it is very difficult for them to actually generate truly random numbers. Taken from http://www.random.org/essay.html: Randomness and random numbers have traditionally been used for a variety of purposes, for example games such as dice games. With the advent of computers, people recognized the need for a means of introducing randomness into a computer program. Surprising as it may seem, however, it is difficult to get a computer to do something by chance. A computer running a program follows its instructions blindly and is therefore completely predictable. Computer engineers chose to introduce randomness into computers in the form of pseudo-random number generators. As the name suggests, pseudo-random numbers are not truly random. Rather, they are computed from a mathematical formula or simply taken from a precalculated list. A lot of research has gone into pseudo-random number theory and modern algorithms for generating them are so good that the numbers look exactly like they were really random. Pseudo-random numbers have the characteristic that they are predictable, meaning they can be predicted if you know where in the sequence the first number is taken from. For some purposes, predictability is a good characteristic, for others it is not. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Shadow_of_Darkness on 02/07/04 at 04:52:31 Ok, Lets look at the dice. Probability of rolling any number is 1/6. 6 possible outcomes per roll, so lets do 3 rolls-- 6^3=216 possible outcomes. Now, let's stick with the two- Probability that you have at least 1 two. Ok, I drew out rolling a dice 3 dimes, if the first number rolled is a 1. So, if the first number rolled is a one, there are 25 outcomes where there is no 2. From that, you can rationalize that it would be the same for 3, 4, 5, and 6, and obviously if the first roll is a 2, theres no outcomes. Then, for 1, probability of at least one 2 is 11; for 2 theres 36, then 11 for 3, 4, 5, 6. So, if you roll a dice 3 times, theres 216 possible outcomes. Probability speaking, 125 of the outcomes are no 2, and 91 of the outcomes have at least one 2. Yes, that does add up to 216. So, you roll the dice 3 times. Probability of gettin no 2 is 125/216 or .5787; about 58%. Probability of rolling at least one 2 is 91/216 or .4213; about 42%. What i was saying earlier was to prove that with each individual roll, the probability is the same because they are independant. But, if you look at it as "Well, i'll roll 1,000 times."; then each you would look at it as rolling at least one 6-stat over 4000 rolls. The probability of rolling at least one 6 stat in 4000 rolls is slightly more than probability of rolling a 6-stat in general. |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by id on 02/08/04 at 23:10:32 totally agree. Comp's random numbers were never random. They are either 'pre-set' or time base...but you'll just have to learn and live with it. :-/ |
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Title: Re: Odds on the roller Post by Xcelon on 02/13/04 at 21:43:48 wtf is everybody talking about ??? |
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